Should We Take the Machete Away From the Toddler?

Or should we wait and see how this plays out?

I’ve lived through a few recessions. One was caused by a pandemic. One was caused by a housing bubble. One was caused by people suddenly realizing that it’s insane to give massive checks to any Stanford dropout who puts “Internet = future = profits” on a slide deck. If we’re headed towards a recession — and it increasingly looks like we might be — this will be the first one in my lifetime caused by a president having economic beliefs that are a weird mix of mercantilism, nationalism, and shoving a chopstick up your nose until it punctures your brain.

The odds of a recession would be even higher if people thought that Trump was actually going to follow through on his insane trade war threats.¹ Of course, the stock market plunge this week indicates that investors increasingly think that Trump might actually be dumb enough to do what he says he’s going to do. And really: Would you want to bet that Trump isn’t sufficiently dumb? Surely, the three worst things in the world to bet on are: 1) The Washington Generals, 2) Stock in The Amalgamated Asbestos and VHS Video Rental Company of Eastern Ukraine, and 3) Trump’s intelligence.

This self-inflicted proto-recession isn’t just maddening; it’s probably illegal. The Wall Street Journal recently ran an op-ed describing how Trump is stretching the phrase “unusual and extraordinary threat” beyond the limits of spacetime. I agree with every word that the Journal wrote, and let’s pause for a moment to marvel at the state of things: You have me — and also basically every left-leaning economist with a “SHE PERSISTED” t-shirt collecting dust in their closet — in perfect alignment with the Wall Street Journal editorial page. That only happens when the question at hand is really basic, and I mean astoundingly basic, like “pants or underwear: which goes on the outside?”